Donald Trump’s trade tariffs represent the largest overnight price change that the world has ever experienced. We know that further changes are likely in one form or another. How should you respond to the changes to date and to plan for further changes?
For exporters, this volatility will put pressure on supply chains, pricing decisions, and sales teams. But with change comes opportunity. Businesses that adapt quickly and strategically can mitigate risks and discover new paths to growth.
At Pearson Ham Group, we help companies manage complexity through clear pricing and value strategies. Here’s how exporters to the USA can approach the current challenge.
Rather than offering a one-size-fits-all solution, we recommend every exporter to the USA consider the following questions:
The tariffs will make your products more expensive in the US market. As prices rise, expect a decline in both volume and value perception (unless you are a Swiss watch manufacturer, perhaps).
Tariffs do not consider customer price expectations or willingness to pay. Remember that price elasticity is not constant, even small price increases beyond key thresholds can cause steep drops in sales. Understanding these thresholds is crucial to managing risk.
These tariffs are designed to improve the value-for-money perception of American goods compared to imports. When prices rise, only a strong, differentiated value proposition can prevent your product from being seen as overpriced. Can you clearly explain why your product remains an excellent choice despite the higher price?
When assessing shifts in value perception, look beyond your own boardroom. Since the tariffs are applied at different rates, the competitive landscape is changing. A UK and a German auto-parts manufacturer previously priced at parity will both become more expensive compared to American alternatives, but the UK manufacturer (10% tariff) will now be cheaper than the German one (20% tariff). This presents both opportunities and risks.
Except for direct-to-consumer models, most exports flow through intermediaries—retailers, wholesalers, manufacturers, and service providers. Your American partners will endure the most of tariffs and must decide how to respond.
Understanding their likely reactions gives you different scenarios to evaluate. If they pass the tariffs on to their customers, how will demand for your goods be affected? If they absorb costs, what will they expect from you? If they have inventory on hand, can they maintain the same sales velocity?
Is your customer in crisis mode or ready to seize an opportunity? Are they looking to squeeze suppliers or seeking a partnership through this challenge? Segment your customer base and build a tailored response based on their behaviours.
Companies with high fixed costs that require scale to be profitable are particularly vulnerable during a demand downturn. In these cases, it might make sense to reduce prices to secure volumes but be careful to avoid long-term price erosion.
Businesses with variable cost structures may prefer to scale back production to meet new demand levels rather than cutting prices to protect volume. For example, reducing factory output for cars instead of lowering prices. This allows demand to recalibrate while protecting price integrity.
If you redirect volume typically destined for the US to new markets, keep profitability top of mind. Do you understand willingness-to-pay and cost-to-serve in these new markets? You cannot simply copy and paste your US go-to-market strategy.
Your customers face significant uncertainty. Tariffs push them toward finding alternatives. If your goods make up a substantial portion of their supply, they will explore diversification and potentially reshoring.
In the near term, consider ways to protect your partnership. Targeted price adjustments, delayed increases, or modified payment terms can help alleviate your customers’ pain and give them time to adapt. In return, seek commitment beyond this investment period and avoid measures that permanently reduce price.
For the medium term, explore more strategic opportunities. These might include risk-sharing pricing models, switching to lower-tier supply options, or alternative supply-chain structures. The goal is to build a proactive partnership with long-term stability in mind.
The US is a key market for many exporters due to its scale and typically high willingness-to-pay. However, if US demand declines in the short term, you may find opportunities to grow in other regions. Review your market mix and explore new demand where your pricing is now more competitive. Where you once faced capacity constraints, you may now be able to serve previously untapped markets. Consider the long-term viability of supply chain shifts, including sourcing from or manufacturing in lower-tariff countries.
Sales and customer support teams need to understand the tariff impact, your response strategy, and how to communicate value effectively. They are key to maintaining trust with intermediaries and end customers. Support them with guidance and tools to have constructive conversations about tariffs, sourcing, and pricing.
For most companies, the biggest external determinant of their medium-term success is not how the customers might change but what actions their competitors and partners take.
It is vital that you consider how your competitors are likely to react in the coming days and weeks and of more importantly, how your actions will affect their actions.
The combination of your choices alongside their choices can create numerous scenarios that vary dramatically in their attractiveness. Be careful and wise to ensure you end up with the right outcome
There is no single answer to the challenge of tariffs, but asking the right questions helps exporters respond thoughtfully. Focus on value, be deliberate in your pricing decisions, and stay close to your partners and map our competitive scenarios. Your actions may be pivotal in how your market develops. Now is the time to stop, consider the impacts of the changes to date, create alternative plans, evaluate them and to act purposefully.
Whilst the context is new, the areas that need to be considered and the tools that you have in your armoury are not. We have developed a rapid planning process that can help you resolve these questions and take confident and well-informed actions within a week. If you would like help to define you Tariff Response Strategy, please contact one of our experts.
